No, AI Is Not a Bubble

"People who think AI is a bubble could say it's "overheated" or it's "inflated"-which are descriptive terms that definitely apply. But they're not using those terms. They're using the term "bubble." So, what is the single most defining characteristic of a bubble? Like...in real life. Bubbles pop. From a recent LinkedIn interaction. That's the whole point of bubbles. When you go into nature, do you see bubbles that expand and contract and survive? No. They pop. It's kind of their main characteristic!"

"The .com thing was a bubble. And it popped. Because that's what bubbles do. The confusion comes from thinking that the bubble was the internet itself-like Marcus did above-which obviously hasn't gone away. The bubble was not the internet. The .com bubble was the belief that if you took your mid-ass business to the internet, you would instantly become rich. That is what popped."

Many uses of the word 'bubble' conflate temporary hype with durable technology. A bubble's defining physical trait is that it pops, and a market bubble is an overinflated belief that collapses. The .com bubble exemplified a belief that simply moving a mediocre business online guaranteed instant riches; that belief burst while the internet itself endured. AI enthusiasm can be described as overheated or inflated, but labeling it a bubble implies an expectation of a crash in specific claims or business models. Analysts should identify which claim is overinflated, such as 'add AI and become rich,' which can collapse even while useful AI survives.

Read at Danielmiessler