"In one analysis, they compared three different groups of workers who have varying levels of exposure to AI technology - high, middle or low - and tracked any changes in their share of the workforce since ChatGPT went public. If AI is having any impact at all, you'd expect a decrease in the high and middle exposure groups, but that simply wasn't the case. In fact, the percentage in each category hasn't budged much, suggesting that AI is essentially a non-factor, at least so far."
"In another analysis, the Yale team looked at the rate of change in the composition of the American labor force and compared that data to two separate time periods: when computers started gaining wider usage circa 1984 and the explosion in internet entrepreneurship beginning around 1996. The idea was to measure whether AI is transforming the workforce in a historically resonant way."
Job data from the 33 months since ChatGPT's debut, employment status of college graduates, and worker exposure levels to AI were analyzed. Workers were grouped into high, middle, and low AI exposure categories and their shares of the workforce were tracked after ChatGPT went public. The percentage in each exposure category showed little change, indicating limited displacement so far. The pace of change in labor-market composition since AI's emergence closely matched rates observed during early computer adoption around 1984 and the internet surge around 1996. Current evidence indicates AI has not yet produced a distinct workforce transformation.
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