"Timelines for transformative artificial intelligence sometimes called AGI (artificial general intelligence), or AI capable of replacing humans at most cognitive tasks have become a fixture in communities devoted to AI safety. The release of ChatGPT in 2022 vastly accelerated these timelines, with officials and experts predicting the arrival of AGI within decades or years."
"Now, some doubts appear to be surfacing about the imminence of AGI, and whether the term is meaningful in the first place. A lot of other people have been pushing their timelines further out in the past year, as they realise how jagged AI performance is, said Malcolm Murray, an AI risk management expert and one of the authors of the International AI Safety Report. For a scenario like AI 2027 to happen, [AI] would need a lot of more practical skills that are"
Daniel Kokotajlo revised his timeline, saying autonomous coding and the self-acceleration of AI toward superintelligence will take longer than initially predicted. His AI 2027 scenario had envisioned unchecked development leading to a superintelligence that outfoxes leaders and destroys humanity, which provoked intense debate and attracted both supporters and critics. Political figures referenced the scenario and experts such as Gary Marcus dismissed its conclusions as science fiction. The release of ChatGPT in 2022 had earlier accelerated AGI timelines, but many experts now push projections further out after observing jagged AI performance. Practical skill gaps remain for autonomous development to occur.
Read at www.theguardian.com
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