"When then Tropical Storm Melissa was churning south of Haiti, Philippe Papin, a National Hurricane Center (NHC) meteorologist, had confidence it was about to grow into a monster hurricane. As the lead forecaster on duty, he predicted that in just 24 hours the storm would become a category 4 hurricane and begin a turn towards the coast of Jamaica. No NHC forecaster had ever issued such a bold forecast for rapid strengthening."
"On the morning of 25 October, Papin explained in his public discussion and on social media that Google's model was a primary reason he was so confident: Roughly 40/50 Google DeepMind ensemble members show Melissa becoming a Category 5. While I am not ready to forecast that intensity yet given the track uncertainty, that remains a possibility. It appears likely that a period of rapid intensification will occur as the storm moves slowly over very warm ocean waters which is the highest oceanic heat content"
Tropical Storm Melissa rapidly intensified into a Category 5 hurricane, making one of the strongest recorded landfalls in Jamaica. NHC forecaster Philippe Papin predicted rapid strengthening and a turn toward Jamaica within 24 hours. Papin cited Google's DeepMind hurricane model, with roughly 40 of 50 ensemble members showing Category 5 intensity, as a primary reason for confidence. DeepMind is the first AI model dedicated to hurricanes and has outperformed traditional forecasters across 13 Atlantic storms this year, particularly on track predictions. Papin's bold forecast likely provided Jamaicans extra preparation time, potentially reducing loss of life and property.
Read at www.theguardian.com
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