Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei explains his spending caution, warning if AI growth forecasts are off by just a year, 'then you go bankrupt' | Fortune
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Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei explains his spending caution, warning if AI growth forecasts are off by just a year, 'then you go bankrupt' | Fortune
""I really do believe that we could have models that are a country of geniuses in the data center in one to two years," he added. "One question is: How many years after that do the trillions in revenue start rolling in? I don't think it's guaranteed that it's going to be immediate. It think it could be one year. It could be two years. I could even stretch it to five years, although I'm skeptical of that.""
""Because of this uncertainty on how fast revenue will grow, spending massive amounts of money now to quickly build data centers could be "ruinous" if estimates are off even slightly, Amodei warned. In November, Anthropic said it will spend $50 billion on AI infrastructure in the U.S., starting with data centers in Texas and New York. Meanwhile, the top hyperscalers stunned Wall Street in recent weeks with plans to boost capital expenditures by much more than expected.""
Anthropic plans measured infrastructure spending, committing $50 billion for U.S. AI data centers in Texas and New York while avoiding the hyperscaler-level capex surge. Major cloud companies are planning far larger expenditures—Amazon $200 billion, Alphabet up to $185 billion, and Meta as high as $135 billion—which contrasts with Anthropic's restraint. Technical milestones could produce extremely capable models within one to two years, but the timing of when trillions in revenue might materialize remains uncertain and could range from immediate to several years. That revenue-timing uncertainty makes large, early investments financially risky and potentially ruinous. Medical breakthroughs are cited as an example of potential enormous economic value.
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