Anthropic bods say AI hasn't had much impact on jobs

"We find no systematic increase in unemployment for highly exposed workers since late 2022, though we find suggestive evidence that hiring of younger workers has slowed in exposed occupations. This finding challenges widespread predictions about AI-driven job displacement and suggests the labor market impact has been more modest than anticipated by many experts and analysts."

"In the end AI will be able to do everything, and we need to grapple with that. This statement reflects the long-term perspective on AI capabilities, acknowledging eventual comprehensive automation while recognizing current limitations and the need for society to prepare for future technological transformation."

"The track record of past approaches gives reason for humility. This observation emphasizes that previous forecasting methods for predicting AI labor impacts have proven unreliable, suggesting caution in accepting current predictions and supporting the need for improved measurement approaches like observed exposure."

Anthropic economists Maxim Massenkoff and Peter McCrory challenge predictions that AI will rapidly displace jobs, particularly entry-level white-collar positions. Despite CEO Dario Amodei's forecast that AI could displace half of all entry-level white-collar jobs within 1-5 years, empirical evidence shows minimal labor market impact. The researchers find no systematic increase in unemployment among workers in automation-exposed occupations since late 2022, though hiring of younger workers in these fields has slowed. While some layoffs attributed to AI exist, alternative explanations often apply. The economists propose a new measurement called "observed exposure" to better assess AI's actual labor impact, emphasizing humility given past forecasting failures.

Read at Theregister