""Every percent of ethanol blend matters," she says, noting that a 1% increase in the national blend rate equates to nearly half a billion bushels of corn demand - about the size of North Dakota's corn crop. Still, she warns, "E15 won't fix today's carryout problems. It's a long-term play.""
""Stroud says that it's important to remember that U.S. ethanol plants have broken multiple weekly production records in the current marketing year. Much of that production is being buoyed by a favourable export environment, with U.S. Gulf ethanol priced at a record discount to Brazilian product.""
""The 45Z clean fuel production credit - that replaces the $1 blending tax credit - is having a ripple effect across the oilseed sector. Previously criticized for penalizing some feed stocks, the revamped policy now places domestic feedstocks like soybean and canola oil on more competitive footing by removing indirect land use penalties. According to Stroud, 45Z \"nearly triples\" the value of the tax credit for renewable diesel made from soybean oil and gives corn ethanol an added margin boost of around 11 cents per gallon.""
Year‑round, nationwide E15 has gained political traction, including presidential support, yet short‑term expectations remain cautious. Each 1% increase in the national ethanol blend adds nearly half a billion bushels of corn demand, but E15 is a long‑term measure that will not resolve current carryout issues. U.S. ethanol plants have set multiple weekly production records, with exports aided by U.S. Gulf ethanol trading at a record discount to Brazilian product. The 45Z clean fuel production credit replaces the $1 blending tax credit, removes indirect land‑use penalties, and makes soybean and canola oil more competitive while boosting renewable diesel and corn ethanol margins. Uncertainty around EPA renewable volume obligations and clean fuel regulations continues to influence soy, canola, and corn markets.
Read at Realagriculture
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