Times are very good in the cattle business - how long can it last?

"Looking ahead, Good says the current cycle has structural differences from the sharp 2014 peak and collapse that followed. "Supply's going to stay a lot tighter, a lot longer because it's very slow rebuild," he says, adding that beef quality and consistency have improved over the past decade, supporting demand. Packing capacity dynamics also matter, with Good noting that leverage "should continue to favour the cattle breeder over the next few years.""

""These are the highest prices we've seen in 40 years," Good says. He points to long-term demand growth as a key driver, noting that beef prices have increased two per cent or more faster than inflation on an annual basis for 25 years, leaving more real dollars in the system. "We're probably here at the cycle highs or very close to it," he says, "but the market probably is going to stay pretty good for a couple more years.""

Record-high cattle prices have reached levels not seen in 40 years, driven by long-term demand growth and inflation-adjusted increases in real dollars flowing into the beef system. Beef prices have risen roughly two percent or more faster than inflation annually for 25 years. Supply is expected to remain tight for an extended period because herd rebuilding is slow, constrained by drought, urban pressure, high entry costs, and lingering producer skepticism, with bred-heifer inventories historically low. Improved beef quality and packing capacity dynamics increase breeder leverage. Near-term conditions look supportive, with markets likely near cycle highs but remaining strong for a few years.

Read at Realagriculture