Tariffs, Tension & Trying Not to Overreact: Q3 2025 Supply Chain Update from Agrowgate

"The Q3 2025 food and beverage supply chain is caught between clarity and chaos. U.S. tariff deals with Mexico and Brazil have brought some stability, but Midwest aluminum premiums are still at record highsup nearly 3x year-over-year. Trucking rates climbed another 5% this summer, while ocean freight remains choppy as ports rebound. On the ingredient side, U.S. corn acreage hit 95.2 millionthe highest in over a decade, and hop acreage fell another 6% year-over-year as growers right-size production."

"Trucking rates climbed another 5% this summer, while ocean freight remains choppy as ports rebound. From sweeteners stuck in a policy-driven price trap to steady (but fragile) grain supplies, this quarter's outlook is one of cautious consistencywith plenty of pressure points still in play. Insiders can download the full report to get the deep dive into packaging, freight, grains, sweeteners, hops, and more."

Q3 2025 shows a mix of stabilization and disruption across the food and beverage supply chain. U.S. tariff deals with Mexico and Brazil reduced some sourcing and cost uncertainty. Midwest aluminum premiums reached record highs, nearly three times year-over-year, elevating packaging costs. Trucking rates rose about 5% during summer, while ocean freight remains volatile as ports rebound. U.S. corn acreage expanded to 95.2 million acres, the largest in over a decade, supporting grain supplies that remain steady but fragile. Hop acreage declined 6% year-over-year as growers right-size production. Sweeteners face a policy-driven price trap, creating ongoing pressure points.

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