China's zerotariff Africa deal: Who really wins?

Kenya’s first avocado shipments to China arrived under Beijing’s zero-tariff rule that took effect May 1. The policy grants Africa’s largest economies tariff-free access to China’s market for two years. Early shipments are presented as evidence that the deal is producing tangible effects. Farmers expect improved earnings and expanded market access beyond local sales. Analysts describe the policy as benefiting Africa’s stronger, middle-income economies that are positioned to raise exports. China and Africa recorded record goods trade of $348 billion in 2025, with Africa exporting mostly oil, minerals, and raw materials and importing mainly manufactured goods. Africa’s trade deficit with China reached a record $102 billion in 2025. Economists attribute low export prices to limited value addition and call for greater value-added production.

"The first shipments of avocados from Kenya arrived in China under Beijing's new zero-tariff rule early this month. A clear sign, analysts say, that the deal is starting to have real effects. The policy, which came into effect on May 1, gives Africa's biggest economies tariff-free access to China's market for the next two years."

""China introducing the zero tariff is very very encouraging," Olive Gichuri, a Kenyan coffee farmer, told DW. "It means better earnings for the farmers. When our coffee becomes very competitive, it means more demand and also more market for farmers." "They [farmers] are not only limited to selling their products in the local [Kenyan] market," Gichuri said, adding that the zero tariff had opened the market in China."

"Lauren Johnston, a senior research fellow and international economist specializing in China, Africa and geoeconomics at the AustChina Institute in Melbourne, told DW that the policy "is actually a gift mainly to Africa's stronger economies that are middle-income countries and that are sort of well-positioned to elevate exports.""

""The export price is low because we do not add value to our exports," Adu Owusu Sarkodie, an economist and senior lecturer at the University of Ghana, told DW. "The best way to position ourselves is to get a value addition to our ex"

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