The death of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on February 28, 2026, per NPR reporting, sent immediate shockwaves through energy markets. WTI crude climbed from $61.60 on February 2 to $71.13 by March 2, and prediction markets now assign 97% probability to crude reaching $75 by end of March, with 81% confidence in a move to $80.
Energy companies and the oil market were a key focus after U.S. forces captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in a weekend raid. The price of U.S. crude jumped 1.4% to $58.13 per barrel. The price of Brent crude, the international standard, rose 1.2% to $61.50 per barrel. President Donald Trump has floated a plan for U.S. oil companies to help rebuild Venezuela's oil industry. Chevron surged 5% and Exxon Mobil rose 2% for some of the strongest gains in the market.
Crude oil prices remained close to the levels seen during the last few days. Markets could continue to consolidate while hopes of the US government reopening helped stabilize demand prospects. Additionally, expectations of a pause in production increases from OPEC countries next year could help limit downside risks. US sanctions on Russian oil majors could also continue to support prices as they could disrupt crude volumes and tighten supply to a certain extent.