"The death of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on February 28, 2026, per NPR reporting, sent immediate shockwaves through energy markets. WTI crude climbed from $61.60 on February 2 to $71.13 by March 2, and prediction markets now assign 97% probability to crude reaching $75 by end of March, with 81% confidence in a move to $80."
"Phillips 66 posted a strong Q4 2025, with shares up 16.75% over the past month as the Iran catalyst took hold. The company delivered adjusted EPS of $2.47 against an estimate of $1.65, a meaningful beat, and achieved a record 88% clean product yield with 99% crude utilization."
"Valero Energy has been one of the strongest performers in the group, with shares up 25.95% over the past month. The company reported record refining throughput of 3.1 million barrels per day in Q4 and refining segment operating income of $1.69B versus $437M year-over-year."
The death of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in February 2026 triggered significant crude price increases, with WTI climbing from $61.60 to $71.13 and prediction markets assigning high probabilities to further gains. Refiners benefit when crude prices surge because refined product pricing lags, expanding crack spreads and margins. Four U.S. refiners demonstrate varying responses to this environment. Phillips 66 achieved strong Q4 results with record clean product yield and high crude utilization, though West Coast losses and weak chemicals margins limit upside. Valero Energy posted record refining throughput of 3.1 million barrels per day with exceptional operating income growth and raised its dividend 6%, maintaining substantial cash reserves.
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