"Donald Trump's decision to go to war against Iran will be remembered as a grave strategic miscalculation, reshaping the region in unintended and destabilizing ways. The war has undermined the US's standing in the world and failed to achieve its core objectives: it has neither brought about regime change in Tehran, nor forced Iran to submit to American demands."
"By inflicting economic pain far beyond the region and slowing the global economy, Iran has demonstrated that its grip over the strait of Hormuz constitutes its most potent deterrent, arguably more consequential than its now defunct nuclear programme. Control of the strait will be Tehran's most powerful source of leverage in the years ahead."
"The prospect of disruption at both Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab would amount to a double shock to the global economy. Against this backdrop, it is no surprise that the US's Gulf allies have reacted with alarm, unsettled by the prospect of a postwar Iran wielding control over Hormuz as a permanent lever of coercion."
The war against Iran has reshaped the region negatively, undermining US standing and failing to achieve regime change or compliance from Tehran. Iran's control over the strait of Hormuz has become a significant deterrent, impacting the global economy. The US's Gulf allies are alarmed by a potentially empowered Iran postwar, leading them to seek alternative security arrangements with regional powers and strengthen ties with global partners. The long-term effects of the conflict may result in a more assertive Iran despite initial weakening.
Read at www.theguardian.com
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