"Defeat in the present confrontation with Iran will be of an entirely different character. It can neither be repaired nor ignored. There will be no return to the status quo ante, no ultimate American triumph that will undo or overcome the harm done. The Strait of Hormuz will not be "open," as it once was. With control of the strait, Iran emerges as the key player in the region and one of the key players in the world."
"The roles of China and Russia, as Iran's allies, are strengthened; the role of the United States, substantially diminished. Far from demonstrating American prowess, as supporters of the war have repeatedly claimed, the conflict has revealed an America that is unreliable and incapable of finishing what it started. That is going to set off a chain reaction around the world as friends and foes adjust to America's failure."
"President Trump likes to talk about who has "the cards," but whether he has any good ones left to play is not clear. The United States and Israel pounded Iran with devastating effectiveness for 37 days, killing much of the country's leadership and destroying the bulk of its military, yet couldn't collapse the regime or exact even the smallest concession from it."
Early U.S. losses in World War II were reversed, and later setbacks in Vietnam and Afghanistan did not cause lasting damage because they were not central to global competition. Iraq’s initial failure was mitigated through a strategic shift that stabilized the country and preserved U.S. regional dominance. A confrontation with Iran would differ because the resulting defeat could not be repaired or ignored, preventing a return to the prior status. Control of the Strait of Hormuz would elevate Iran as a major regional and global actor. China and Russia would gain influence through their alliance with Iran, while U.S. power would substantially decline. The conflict would also undermine perceptions of U.S. reliability and ability to finish what it starts, prompting friends and foes to adjust.
#us-iran-conflict #middle-east-geopolitics #strait-of-hormuz #regional-power-shifts #us-foreign-policy
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