What North Korea Can Tell Us About America's Future

"Ever since North Korea suffered through the death of its first leader in 1994, a loss magnified by an economic collapse and a devastating famine, outside observers have likened the country to an airplane experiencing a serious malfunction. The major question they posed: In the end, would North Korea experience a soft landing or a catastrophic crash? Perhaps a reformer would come along-say, a North Korean version of Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev-who could right the airship of state and guide it toward the runway of reunification with South Korea."

"More direly, the North Korean regime could collapse all of a sudden, like the Communist governments in Eastern Europe in 1989. Those were relatively peaceful affairs, but North Korea's worst-case scenarios might involve violent power struggles, the return of famine, and a free-for-all scramble for the country's loose nukes. US analysts have gamed out the consequences of just such a hard landing-and so has the Pentagon with its OPLAN 5029 -and they all add up to a tragedy not only for North Koreans and the region, but also potentially for the United States and the rest of the world."

"The North Korean government has, however, defied such scenarios by somehow surviving, while rejecting reunification with the south and turning up its nose at conventional versions of reform. Despite additional challenges-a sustained Covid quarantine, several distinctly hostile governments in South Korea, and a flatlining economy-the regime has so far avoided collapse and, if anything, tightened its control over its population. For the time being at least, the North Korean plane evidently has no intention of landing, much less crashing."

"Today, in an improbable plot twist, however, Donald Trump's United States is starting to seem ever more like an aircraft in distress. After all, the present pilot of Air America, exhibiting signs of psychosis or perhaps dementia, has begun to dismantle the cockpit under the delusion that it's his to transform into"

North Korea’s leadership transition after 1994, combined with economic collapse and famine, led outside observers to compare the country to an aircraft with a serious malfunction. The central question was whether the regime would achieve a soft landing toward reunification with South Korea or crash through sudden collapse. Analysts considered scenarios including reform by a Gorbachev-like figure or abrupt regime collapse resembling Eastern Europe in 1989, with risks of violent power struggles, renewed famine, and uncontrolled nuclear assets. Despite Covid quarantine, hostile conditions in South Korea, and a stagnant economy, the regime has persisted, rejected reunification, and tightened control. The comparison then shifts to the United States, portrayed as an aircraft in distress under Trump’s leadership.

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