"For all the turns in U.S. policy during the nearly four years of the war in Ukraine—from Joe Biden's "as long as it takes" to Donald Trump's "you don't have the cards"—the fundamental nature of the conflict has remained remarkably stable. Russia has insisted on limiting, if not negating, Ukraine's sovereignty, and Vladimir Putin has long believed that he is just around the corner from convincing Ukraine's Western backers that this is the only sensible outcome."
"Earlier this month, reports emerged of a twenty-eight-point peace plan shepherded into existence by Trump's envoy and old friend Steve Witkoff. The plan called for Ukraine to withdraw entirely from the Donbas, parts of which it still controls; to unequivocally give up the prospect of joining NATO; and for NATO to agree not to send troops there. Kirill Dmitriev, the head of Russia's sovereign-wealth fund, and Yuri Ushakov, a top foreign-policy aide to Putin, were reportedly heavily involved in negotiating the proposal."
U.S. policy has shifted between administrations, but the core contest between Russian demands and Ukrainian security needs has stayed constant. Russia seeks limits on Ukrainian sovereignty and believes Western resolve will eventually erode. Ukraine seeks durable security guarantees to prevent future invasions rather than a precarious pause. A reported twenty-eight-point plan proposed Ukrainian withdrawal from parts of Donbas, renunciation of NATO membership prospects, and NATO troop restrictions, with reported involvement from Kremlin-linked figures. Negotiations have continued in multiple capitals, but Moscow's demands remain unacceptable to Kyiv, sustaining the stalemate.
Read at The New Yorker
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