US population might decline for the first time

"In the year prior to July 1, 2025, the US Census revealed this week that the population grew by only 0.5%, or 1.8 million people, its lowest growth since the pandemic. The main cause for the significant slowdown was a collapse in net migration to 1.3 million from a peak of 2.7 million in the year prior to July 2024."

"In that most recent period, there were 519,000 more births than deaths, according to the new Census figures. That surplus is shrinking, however. By 2030 it's likely to disappear altogether, making the US entirely dependent on immigration for population growth, according to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office. If net migration (arrivals minus departures) is negative, and large enough to outweigh that births-minus-deaths figure, then the US population shrinks."

"And there's little question that net migration is getting smaller thanks to Trump's policies. Census experts this week said they expect it to fall to only 316,000 in the year prior to July 2026, with the US "trending toward negative net migration." No one wants to (or is able to) come to the United States. Births and deaths approach even. Population flatlines or declines."

U.S. population growth slowed to 0.5% (1.8 million) in the year to July 1, 2025, the lowest rate since the pandemic. The primary driver of the slowdown was a drop in net migration from 2.7 million to 1.3 million year-over-year. Births exceeded deaths by 519,000 in that period, but that surplus is shrinking and is projected to vanish by 2030, making future growth reliant on immigration per the Congressional Budget Office. If net migration turns negative and exceeds the births-minus-deaths surplus, the population will decline. Census experts expect net migration to fall further toward negative territory by July 2026.

Read at FlowingData