Ruling Venezuela with a 2,000 Mile Hammer is Not Likely to End Well

"First, attempting to work through the Venezuelan regime will drive a number of choices that the Administration does not appear to have thought through. Propping up an authoritarian regime that is deeply corrupt, violent, and wildly unpopular will over time increasingly alienate the majority of the Venezuelan people and undermine international legitimacy. Regime leaders, and the upper echelons of their subordinates, are themselves unlikely to quietly depart power or Venezuela itself without substantial guarantees of immunity and probably wealth somewhere else."

"First, the Administration seems to want to dictate policy to the Delcy Rodriguez government through threats of force, which President Trump recently highlighted by suggesting that he had called off a second strike on Venezuela because the regime was cooperating. Second, the Trump Administration has stated that it will control the oil sales "indefinitely" to, in the words of the Secretary of Energy, "drive the changes that simply must happen in Venezuela.""

Administration plans include threatening force to dictate policy to the Delcy Rodríguez government and controlling Venezuelan oil sales indefinitely to drive unspecified changes. Attempting to work through a corrupt, violent, and unpopular regime will increasingly alienate the Venezuelan majority and erode international legitimacy. Regime leaders and senior subordinates will resist leaving power without guarantees of immunity and likely wealth abroad, and they will obstruct political transition absent such guarantees. Facilitating their escape from punishment with some share of ill-gotten gains will be unacceptable to most Venezuelans. The Administration will face choices about tolerating regime repression and managing long-term instability.

Read at The Cipher Brief