Eight years ago, Trump lagged with white evangelicals in Iowa (21 percent, tied with Marco Rubio for second place), who made up roughly six-in-ten caucusgoers, according to the entrance poll. But he's now dominating this bloc - leading Ron DeSantis 56 percent to 22 percent, according to a recent Fox Business poll - foreclosing any path for DeSantis or Nikki Haley to usurp him.
If Haley is going to pull off an upset in the second GOP contest, she'll need to improve upon a gender gap that's developed in recent weeks: The strongest woman presidential candidate in Republican Party history is running better with men than women. A St. Anselm College poll this month, which showed Haley at 30 percent overall, found the former South Carolina governor only 6 points behind Trump among men, 40 percent to 34 percent, but a whopping 25 points shy of Trump among women, 48 percent to 23 percent.
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