Republicans could be more motivated to turn out. Supporters of former President Donald Trump are enthusiastic about his candidacy. He had 53% backing from Republican primary voters in the October 3-19 Public Policy Institute of California poll, a level of support that's been steady for months. No other Republican has come close.
Republicans have claimed one of the top two positions in the past, usually when Democrats were united behind a single candidate. They advanced to the November 2022 general elections for governor, attorney general, controller, Senate and other statewide offices. In each case they lost.
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