The stakes are so high, but polls can tell us only the same thing they've been predicting for a year and a half: it looks like it's going to be close.
Those mistakes may be familiar for those who followed the last two presidential elections, when polls underestimated Trump's support.
Pollsters have been dealing with an ongoing crisis of falling response rates. The wider, more representative swath of the public that responds, the better the data.
Polls are a staple of preelection coverage and postelection scrutiny in the U.S., influencing news cycles, campaign strategy, and decisions of potential donors and voters.
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