Cognitive biases cause individuals to mistakenly infer causality from correlation. This confusion is deeply rooted in human evolution where rapid decision-making was essential for survival. Our brains developed to prioritize safety, leading to a tendency to err on the side of caution, evident in error management theory. This tendency manifests in various fields, influencing decisions in science and everyday life. The human cognitive process relies on heuristics, which can distort critical analysis, resulting in educated individuals also falling prey to correlation-causation fallacies.
Even with all our progress in science and education, people still confuse correlation with causation. It's not just about not knowing statistics. This mix-up runs deeper.
From a cognitive psychology standpoint, our brains are designed to prioritize safety over accuracy. This is the basis of what evolutionary psychologists term error management theory (EMT).
Evolution and Misplaced Intuition. Research in adaptive rationality indicates that these misjudgments are not necessarily irrational but are instead contextually adaptive traits that helped our ancestors survive.
The human mind is not a statistical calculator; it is a heuristic processor. It works by using mental shortcuts or 'rules of thumb' that often skip critical analysis.
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