As we like to say, the Oscars aren't just about what's onscreen. They're dependent on industry narratives, a film's momentum, the elusive notion that it's their time for a given individual.
The most infamous example came in the Oscar race eight years ago, which was upended halfway through by the election of Donald Trump.
Movies like Moonlight and La La Land premiered in one vision of America, then suddenly found themselves competing for trophies in another.
It's possible to overstate the impact of outside events, as I know from wrongly predicting that January 6 would doom Glenn Close's chances of getting nominated for Hillbilly Elegy.
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