Everyone involved in political analysis has pretty much assumed that no matter who wins the 2024 presidential (and for that matter, congressional) elections, it will be close.
Current indicators also show a close contest between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. Trump's lead in the national RealClearPolitics polling averages is under one percent.
So you'd be tempted right now to treat the presidential contest much like an NBA game wherein it's usually safe to ignore the score until the very end.
The criminal conviction of Donald Trump and the wildly uncertain fallout from it is a reminder that it's wise to expect the unexpected.
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