Hottest year on record almost certain to occur by end of 2030, UN warns

Western Europe is experiencing a heatwave with unusually high temperatures. The World Meteorological Organization warns that the hottest year since record-keeping is almost certain within the next five years, with an 86% chance that one of those years will surpass 2024 as the warmest on record. The WMO also projects a 75% chance that the 2026–2030 five-year average temperature will exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, a threshold linked to more extreme weather such as heatwaves and storms. Arctic temperatures are predicted to rise 2.8°C above the 1991–2020 average over the next five winters, implying more than three and a half times faster warming than the global average. Paris Agreement limits are increasingly difficult to meet.

"The WMO also said there is a 75 percent chance that the five-year average temperature between 2026 and 2030 will exceed 1.5C (2.7F) since the pre-industrial era, a threshold scientists warn could lead to more extreme weather conditions, including heatwaves and storms. Under the Paris Agreement, which came into effect in November 2016, almost 200 countries agreed to limit global warming to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels."

"In a report published on Thursday, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warned there is an 86 percent chance that one of the next five years will surpass 2024 as the warmest on record. The hottest year since records began is almost certain to occur within the next five years, according to the weather agency of the United Nations."

"The report also warns that temperatures in the Arctic the second coldest region on Earth are predicted to be 2.8C (5F) above the 19912020 average over the next five winters. If the estimate proves correct, it would mean the region is warming more than three and a half times faster than the global average."

"This report reminds us of what too many politicians have been urging us to forget: that climate change is happening, it is getting worse, and the only way of slowing it down is to move as fast as possible to renewable energy and electrification, Jacobs said."

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