World very likely' to exceed 1.5C climate goal in next decade: UN

"Global climate commitments are on track to limit global warming by as much as 2.5 degrees Celsius (4.5 degrees Fahrenheit) this century, far below what is needed to tackle the climate crisis despite a raft of pledges, the United Nations has warned. In its annual Emissions Gap Report on Tuesday, the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) said the world would exceed the 1.5C (2.7F) mark an internationally agreed-upon target set under the Paris Agreement very likely within the next decade."

"If countries do as they have promised in their climate action plans, the planet will warm 2.3 to 2.5C (4.1 to 4.5F) by 2100, the report said. However, with the policies currently in place, Earth is expected to be 2.8C (5F) hotter in that time span. Nations have had three attempts to deliver promises made under the Paris Agreement, and each time they have landed off target, said UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen."

"Global emissions grew 2.3 percent in 2024 compared to the previous year, an increase driven by India followed by China, Russia and Indonesia, Tuesday's report found. But wealthy and powerful Group of 20 (G20) economies accounted for three-quarters of global emissions, and of the six largest polluters, the European Union was the only one to cut greenhouse gases last year."

Global climate commitments put warming at roughly 2.3 to 2.5°C by 2100 if pledges are implemented, while current policies point to about 2.8°C. The world is very likely to exceed the 1.5°C threshold within the next decade. Global emissions rose 2.3% in 2024, driven mainly by India, followed by China, Russia and Indonesia. G20 economies produce about three-quarters of emissions, and among the six largest emitters only the European Union cut greenhouse gases last year. Nations have missed Paris Agreement targets on multiple attempts, requiring unprecedented emissions cuts amid a shrinking window and geopolitical challenges.

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