China may be changing direction on pollution earlier than expected. Lauri Myllyvirta, a longtime China analyst now with the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, calculated that CO2 emissions from the world's biggest national polluter are likely to fall next year and could then go into structural decline.
Approval and construction of coal power plants also continues to expand but China has a history of building far more than it needs its coal fleet runs at less than 50% capacity. Myllyvirta forecasts a permanent change may be under way as clean energy interest groups emerge to rival the traditionally powerful fossil fuel lobby.
His analysis came shortly before China and the US announced they would work together to triple global renewable energy capacity by 2030 and accelerate the replacement of oil, coal and gas. The hope is this may provide some momentum to faltering global negotiations.
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