Martin Baxter indicates that the British Conservatives face a challenge from Reform UK but would need a significant swing to end up with a Canada-style wipeout, requiring Labour to have a 33-point lead for the Tories to have fewer than 10 seats.
The threat from the right is primarily coming from Reform UK, focused on high immigration as a key challenge to Rishi Sunak, currently polling at 12 per cent compared to the Conservative Party's lead by nine points.
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