A moderate conflict-related supply disruption could raise the average Brent price this year to $92 a barrel. A more severe disruption could see oil prices surpass $100 a barrel, raising global inflation in 2024 by nearly one percentage point.
Global inflation remains undefeated. Falling commodity prices have essentially hit a wall. Interest rates may stay higher than expected due to sticky inflation, jeopardizing progress in reducing inflation over the past two years.
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