Curro said Bank of America is forecasting the 10-year Treasury to hit 4.25, which would yield about $1.6 trillion in origination volume in 2024, about 85% of which would be purchase mortgages.
BofA economists are forecasting one rate hike in 2024, in December, followed by four cuts in 2025 and another two in 2026. Lower rates, lower volatility, tighter spreads correlates historically.
BofA economists think the Fed has finished hiking for this cycle and that quantitative tightening will end by the end of 2024. The tapering runoff has already begun.
MBA's Fratantoni projects mortgage rates to finish 2024 at 6.5%, up from its previous forecast of 6.1%. Expecting $1.8 trillion in origination volume in 2024.
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