The Braves and Pirates finished near-identical xwOBAs in the .390 range, but the Pirates outhit their xwOBA with a wOBA around .450, while the Braves' wOBA was much lower, resulting in a surprising 11-5 loss for the Braves.
Reynaldo Lopez's strong performance with low home runs allowed and a solid record of 5-3 in his starts for the Braves this year make him a key player for their success, with expectations for continued good pitching in the upcoming series.
Mitch Keller, starting for the Pirates, has shown inconsistency this season compared to his previous performance, with his ERA-/FIP-/xFIP- indicators at 93/96/98, a slight decline from his breakout in 2023.
Despite Keller's middle-of-the-rotation stats, the Braves will need to adapt to his unpredictability, as his performance this season has varied, presenting a challenge for opponents to prepare for his game.
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