"The bearish argument that prevailed on Wall Street early this year is not entirely gone, though. While the AI rally may continue, it remains speculative, whereas the reasons for Nvidia stock's decline in the spring were genuine. Given challenges such as being effectively locked out of China, Nvidia may still be at a crossroads right now. We do not know for sure where the stock will go next, but with the data on hand, we can speculate. That's what we are doing here."
"AI Infrastructure Dominance: Nvidia controls an estimated 80% of the AI accelerator market through its H100/H200 GPUs and CUDA software ecosystem. It is tough for Nvidia customers to switch to another supplier. This has allowed the company to dominate the industry, with customers returning year after year. As such, it is well-positioned to capture growth from the $400 billion AI chip market projected for 2030."
Nvidia shares tumbled during the China trade war, hitting a year-to-date low under $87 in April before rebounding to all-time highs and reaching a $5 trillion market capitalization as tariff fears eased and macro data improved. Short-term bearish views persisted because the spring decline reflected genuine risks, including effective exclusion from China and broader market pressure. Three core drivers shape Nvidia through 2030: dominant AI infrastructure share driven by H100/H200 GPUs and CUDA, explosive data-center revenue growth from $4.3 billion in Q1 2023 to over $35.6 billion in Q4 2024, and ongoing concern about preserving high margins amid competition and geopolitical constraints.
Read at 24/7 Wall St.
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