#polling-analysis

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How an Astrophysicist Became the Most Accurate Political Forecaster in Canada | The Walrus

Philippe J. Fournier excels in election modeling through statistical analysis and understanding voter psychology, achieving a remarkable 90% accuracy rate.
#donald-trump

Final Trump vs. Harris Polls Show It's Down to the Wire

The presidential race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is incredibly close as early voting approaches Election Day.

Polls and prediction markets are signaling a Republican sweep in the election

Polls indicate a strong likelihood of Donald Trump winning the presidency and Republicans flipping the Senate, impacting future policy decisions.

Democrats Are Euphoric. But This Election Is Much Closer Than They Think.

The race remains a toss-up despite Harris's current lead in polling.

Opinion | Harris Supporters Are Feeling Pretty Good, but It's Not in the Bag

Despite recent momentum, polls indicate a very close race, suggesting it's premature to declare victory for Kamala Harris.
The electoral landscape remains unpredictable with tight competition in key states.

David Axelrod Finds Good News For Kamala Harris in Poll

Kamala Harris leads Trump nationally with 51% to 47%, signaling a shift in the electoral landscape.

Grumpy Voters Want Better Stories. Not Statistics

The 2024 U.S. election signals a global anti-incumbent trend, with voters choosing to oust incumbents largely due to general discontent rather than specific issues.

Final Trump vs. Harris Polls Show It's Down to the Wire

The presidential race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is incredibly close as early voting approaches Election Day.

Polls and prediction markets are signaling a Republican sweep in the election

Polls indicate a strong likelihood of Donald Trump winning the presidency and Republicans flipping the Senate, impacting future policy decisions.

Democrats Are Euphoric. But This Election Is Much Closer Than They Think.

The race remains a toss-up despite Harris's current lead in polling.

Opinion | Harris Supporters Are Feeling Pretty Good, but It's Not in the Bag

Despite recent momentum, polls indicate a very close race, suggesting it's premature to declare victory for Kamala Harris.
The electoral landscape remains unpredictable with tight competition in key states.

David Axelrod Finds Good News For Kamala Harris in Poll

Kamala Harris leads Trump nationally with 51% to 47%, signaling a shift in the electoral landscape.

Grumpy Voters Want Better Stories. Not Statistics

The 2024 U.S. election signals a global anti-incumbent trend, with voters choosing to oust incumbents largely due to general discontent rather than specific issues.
moredonald-trump
#election-predictions

Why did the polls and those who report on them miss Trump's appeal again? - Poynter

Polls again failed to accurately predict election outcomes, raising concerns about their methods and the changing media landscape.

Hogan Is Blowing the Maryland Senate Race

Maryland politics dynamics are surprising and unpredictable, with unexpected shifts in popular support for different candidates.

Why did the polls and those who report on them miss Trump's appeal again? - Poynter

Polls again failed to accurately predict election outcomes, raising concerns about their methods and the changing media landscape.

Hogan Is Blowing the Maryland Senate Race

Maryland politics dynamics are surprising and unpredictable, with unexpected shifts in popular support for different candidates.
moreelection-predictions

How 'Trump Whale' Theo Made $48 Million: Neighbor Effect Poll | Entrepreneur

An anonymous trader named Théo profited $48 million by betting on Trump's victory through insights on polling bias, particularly leveraging the 'shy Trump voter effect.'
#swing-states

Early Results Suggest the Polls Were Notably Accurate

Polling indicated a tight presidential race between Trump and Harris, with results closely matching pre-election forecasts.

Kamala Harris now leads in US polls but state-level data puts race on knife-edge

Harris's nomination has resulted in a slight national lead over Trump, but it remains weaker than past Democratic candidates.
Key swing states show potential for Harris to challenge Trump effectively, suggesting a complex electoral landscape ahead.

Nate Silver New Prediction on 2024 Election: 'Pure Toss Up'

Nate Silver's election forecast shows a competitive race between Trump and Harris, indicating a toss-up situation heading into the election.

Senior Harris Campaign Official Frets That Michigan Or Wisconsin Will Fall' And North Carolina Is Slipping Away'

Harris's campaign is concerned about losing crucial electoral states, particularly Michigan, Wisconsin, and North Carolina, in the upcoming election.

Early Results Suggest the Polls Were Notably Accurate

Polling indicated a tight presidential race between Trump and Harris, with results closely matching pre-election forecasts.

Kamala Harris now leads in US polls but state-level data puts race on knife-edge

Harris's nomination has resulted in a slight national lead over Trump, but it remains weaker than past Democratic candidates.
Key swing states show potential for Harris to challenge Trump effectively, suggesting a complex electoral landscape ahead.

Nate Silver New Prediction on 2024 Election: 'Pure Toss Up'

Nate Silver's election forecast shows a competitive race between Trump and Harris, indicating a toss-up situation heading into the election.

Senior Harris Campaign Official Frets That Michigan Or Wisconsin Will Fall' And North Carolina Is Slipping Away'

Harris's campaign is concerned about losing crucial electoral states, particularly Michigan, Wisconsin, and North Carolina, in the upcoming election.
moreswing-states

Every Single Thing Steve Kornacki Does on Election Night 2024

Steve Kornacki is well-prepared for Election Day analysis amidst uncertainty.
#trump-campaign

Opinion | What the Polls Tell Us About Harris vs. Trump

Pollster Tony Fabrizio predicted a tight race between Trump and Harris, showing a significant shift in public sentiment.

Trump pollster is already warning his rattled team that Harris is going to jump ahead in the polls

Beware possible 'Harris Honeymoon' in polls after Biden's exit.

Fox News' Karl Rove Suggests Trump Could Win Virginia, New Mexico, and New Hampshire

Virginia, New Mexico, and New Hampshire may be competitive for Trump, contrary to prior assumptions of Democratic safety.

Opinion | What the Polls Tell Us About Harris vs. Trump

Pollster Tony Fabrizio predicted a tight race between Trump and Harris, showing a significant shift in public sentiment.

Trump pollster is already warning his rattled team that Harris is going to jump ahead in the polls

Beware possible 'Harris Honeymoon' in polls after Biden's exit.

Fox News' Karl Rove Suggests Trump Could Win Virginia, New Mexico, and New Hampshire

Virginia, New Mexico, and New Hampshire may be competitive for Trump, contrary to prior assumptions of Democratic safety.
moretrump-campaign
#2024-election

2024 US presidential polls tracker: Trump v Harris latest national averages

Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are in a tightly contested race, with national polls showing Harris leading by just one point.

Many Young Voters Have Turned on Biden. But a Different Group Just Might Rescue Him.

Biden's support among younger voters has declined, while some polls show improved standing with elderly voters, which could impact the 2024 election outcome.

2024 US presidential polls tracker: Trump v Harris latest national averages

Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are in a tightly contested race, with national polls showing Harris leading by just one point.

Many Young Voters Have Turned on Biden. But a Different Group Just Might Rescue Him.

Biden's support among younger voters has declined, while some polls show improved standing with elderly voters, which could impact the 2024 election outcome.
more2024-election

Male Pollsters Shocked - Shocked!! - When a Woman Pollster Discovers Women Voters - emptywheel

Polling averages provide a more reliable forecast than individual polls due to increased sample size and reduced margin of error.
#kamala-harris

Democrats warned to keep euphoria in check as election remains on knife-edge

Kamala Harris's campaign momentum is overshadowed by warnings about a closely contested election that could easily swing towards Trump.

CNN's Harry Enten Warns That History Isn't So Kind' to Kamala Harris's Chances of Winning

Kamala Harris's favorable polling doesn't guarantee success; historical patterns indicate difficulty for Democrats succeeding unpopular presidents.

Daily Cartoon: Monday, August 19th

Polls may not fully capture Kamala Harris's impact in battleground states, highlighting potential errors in voter sentiment analysis.

Mark Halperin Warns Kamala Harris Is 'In a Lot of Trouble'

Kamala Harris's campaign faces significant challenges, especially in key battleground states, according to private polling.

Opinion | Is It Morning in Kamala Harris's America?

Polling indicates potential for Harris to win in 2024, while Republican strategies may misinterpret past election dynamics.

Frank Luntz Reveals Crucial Demo That Could Propel' Harris to Victory

Key battleground states will decide the election, with young women voters' turnout being crucial for Vice President Kamala Harris's victory.

Democrats warned to keep euphoria in check as election remains on knife-edge

Kamala Harris's campaign momentum is overshadowed by warnings about a closely contested election that could easily swing towards Trump.

CNN's Harry Enten Warns That History Isn't So Kind' to Kamala Harris's Chances of Winning

Kamala Harris's favorable polling doesn't guarantee success; historical patterns indicate difficulty for Democrats succeeding unpopular presidents.

Daily Cartoon: Monday, August 19th

Polls may not fully capture Kamala Harris's impact in battleground states, highlighting potential errors in voter sentiment analysis.

Mark Halperin Warns Kamala Harris Is 'In a Lot of Trouble'

Kamala Harris's campaign faces significant challenges, especially in key battleground states, according to private polling.

Opinion | Is It Morning in Kamala Harris's America?

Polling indicates potential for Harris to win in 2024, while Republican strategies may misinterpret past election dynamics.

Frank Luntz Reveals Crucial Demo That Could Propel' Harris to Victory

Key battleground states will decide the election, with young women voters' turnout being crucial for Vice President Kamala Harris's victory.
morekamala-harris

US election 2024: The latest from the US presidential campaign trail

The final week of the campaign is critical for messaging and voter outreach.
Polls have been historically unreliable, making current predictions uncertain.

Goldman says traders are too worried about delays to US vote result

Global investors are overstating risks of market uncertainty post-US election results.
Improved ballot processing should lead to quicker vote counting than in 2020.

Adam Schiff vs. Steve Garvey: Who will win the California US Senate race?

Garvey's celebrity status and outreach to Latino voters may not be enough to secure a competitive Senate race against Adam Schiff.

Republican Senate challengers lag well behind Trump in public polls

Republican Senate candidates are struggling in polls compared to Trump, revealing a disconnect within the party leading up to the elections.
#democratic-party

What's inside RFK Jr.'s parting gift for Trump

Kennedy has suspended his campaign and seeks to withdraw from ballots, reflecting discussions with Trump and potential implications for the election.

MSNBC's Steve Kornacki Dismisses Kamala Doing Better Than Biden: Based More on Hope' Than Actual Polling

Kornacki argues Harris's polling numbers are not significantly better than Biden's. Democrats hope Harris's move to the top of the ticket will improve their election chances.

What's inside RFK Jr.'s parting gift for Trump

Kennedy has suspended his campaign and seeks to withdraw from ballots, reflecting discussions with Trump and potential implications for the election.

MSNBC's Steve Kornacki Dismisses Kamala Doing Better Than Biden: Based More on Hope' Than Actual Polling

Kornacki argues Harris's polling numbers are not significantly better than Biden's. Democrats hope Harris's move to the top of the ticket will improve their election chances.
moredemocratic-party

What polls say about Trump's conviction and the 2024 presidential race

The public opinion on Trump's conviction varies by party lines and may impact voting decisions, with polls indicating some support shifts.
#rishi-sunak

Rishi Sunak warned that stoking culture wars will not save the Tories

Rishi Sunak's culture war strategy may not be sufficient to save the Tories, emphasizing the need to focus on economic messaging to win back voters.

Rishi Sunak defends claim local election results point to a hung parliament

Rishi Sunak defends hung parliament claim despite skepticism from Tory MPs and polls, pointing to closer election than polls suggest.

Rishi Sunak warned that stoking culture wars will not save the Tories

Rishi Sunak's culture war strategy may not be sufficient to save the Tories, emphasizing the need to focus on economic messaging to win back voters.

Rishi Sunak defends claim local election results point to a hung parliament

Rishi Sunak defends hung parliament claim despite skepticism from Tory MPs and polls, pointing to closer election than polls suggest.
morerishi-sunak

Trump leads Biden in six swing states, new poll shows live

Joe Biden campaign's 'I'm On Board Month of Action' in March focused on fundraising, opening offices, and hiring staff.
Biden-Harris campaign emphasizing direct voter connection and infrastructure building, highlighting contrast with Trump campaign's ground game shortcomings.

New Poll Finds Clinton-Harris Stronger Ticket To Beat Trump Than Biden-Harris

A Clinton-Harris ticket is viewed as the strongest Democrat option against Trump, surpassing Biden's current position.
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