#earth-system-models

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#climate-prediction #local-climate-impacts #model-uncertainty #climate-modeling #funding-risks
Philosophy
fromAeon
2 days ago

Today's complex climate models aren't equivalent to reality | Aeon Essays

Earth System Models diverge substantially from reality, especially at regional and local scales, limiting reliable detailed local climate predictions.
fromArs Technica
2 months ago

Earth models can predict the planet's future but not their own

I n the 1960s, meteorologist Edward Lorenz was running weather simulations on an early computer system when he realized that a small rounding difference led to extremely divergent weather predictions. He later called this idea the butterfly effect to communicate that small changes in initial conditions, like a butterfly flapping its wings in Nepal, could produce wildly different outcomes, like rain in New York.
Environment
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