Why the BNP won Bangladesh's post-uprising election

"Jamaat recorded historic gains and voters punished the old order, but first-past-the-post maths, patronage networks and political familiarity ultimately returned the BNP to power. In the end, the 13th parliamentary election in Bangladesh was not a revolution. It was a reckoning. When the ballots were counted, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) had secured a decisive victory, returning to power after years in the political wilderness under Sheikh Hasina's 15-year rule."

"When the results became clear, Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) secured 68 seats, while the Jamaat-led bloc secured 77 seats in parliament. That is no small feat for a party whose previous best parliamentary showing was just 18 seats in 1991. Many analysts had suggested Jamaat's support had grown in the run-up to the poll, and the data vindicated that claim. But in an FPTP system, a swelling vote share does not automatically translate into 151 seats out of 300 elected constituencies."

The 13th parliamentary election in Bangladesh produced a decisive BNP victory that ended 15 years of Sheikh Hasina's rule. Jamaat achieved historic gains, winning 68 seats and 77 with its bloc, far exceeding past results. Growing Jamaat support translated into increased seats but not a national landslide because first-past-the-post mechanics limited conversion of vote share into parliamentary majorities. The outcome reflected voter frustration, patronage networks, and entrenched political familiarity rather than a deep ideological rupture or permanent realignment. The contest combined elements of extraordinary mobilization and predictable electoral arithmetic, with party loyalists often abstaining and swing voters determining key races.

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