Why Maduro Probably Can't Count on Putin

"Vladimir Putin's Russia may seem like an obvious place for Maduro to turn as he scours the world for well-armed friends willing to help him withstand a U.S. pressure campaign that threatens his 12-year reign. Russia considers Venezuela its closest ally in the Americas and has deep military, commercial, and cultural ties there. Earlier this year, Maduro signed what he called a "historic and strategic" pact with Putin to expand trade and military cooperation."

"But the Kremlin's response to Maduro's existential crisis has been underwhelming for a country that considers itself a great power. Putin has said nary a word about Maduro or Venezuela lately. Nor has any senior Kremlin official suggested that Russia would come to Venezuela's aid if the U.S. broadens its targets from alleged drug boats to the mainland. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told Russian media this week that Venezuela hasn't requested military help from Moscow."

"He added that, according to the terms of their cooperation deal, the Kremlin is under no obligation to defend Venezuela from foreign attack. Indeed, Maduro may be about to learn the same difficult lesson absorbed by the governments of other Russian allies, including Armenia, Syria, and Iran. They all recently appealed to the Kremlin for help only to discover that the war in Ukraine has taken such a toll, and remains such a priority, that Russia's ability to come to the rescue is severely diminished."

President Nicolás Maduro publicly affirmed a close bond with Russia and highlighted a recent pact to expand trade and military cooperation. Venezuela seeks armed partners to withstand mounting U.S. pressure that threatens Maduro's long rule. The Kremlin's response has been muted, with President Putin largely silent and senior officials offering no commitment to intervene. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Venezuela has not requested military help and that the cooperation agreement does not obligate Russia to defend Venezuela. The war in Ukraine has strained Russian resources and limited Moscow's ability to aid allied governments when crises arise.

Read at The Atlantic