Trump's ego-trip war has collided with economic reality but he can't undo the damage | Rafael Behr

"Waging war with no fixed purpose means victory can be declared at any point. Donald Trump's motives for launching Operation Epic Fury against Iran were incoherent at the start. They are no clearer now that he has declared it very complete, pretty much. US and Israeli bombs have caused death and destruction, shaking but not toppling the government in Tehran."

"What began as a long-haul commitment to roll back decades of Islamic revolution has become a short-term excursion to neutralise Iran's military capabilities. Trump has not quite declared mission accomplished. He says he has won, but also that he has more winning to do. This is the familiar stage of rhetorical climbdown, indicating dawning awareness that a problem is more complicated than the president initially thought."

"The model of regime decapitation and coercion that saw Nicolas Maduro kidnapped from Caracas and replaced with his compliant vice-president earlier this year whetted Trump's appetite for an Iranian sequel. But the Islamic Republic has reserves of ideological and institutional resilience. It can also spook international markets by menacing trade in the Gulf."

Operation Epic Fury against Iran began with incoherent objectives centered on regime change, targeting even Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. However, the operation failed to topple the government, with Khamenei replaced by his son—deemed unacceptable by Trump. The initial long-term commitment to reverse decades of Islamic revolution transformed into a short-term mission to neutralize Iran's military capabilities. Trump declared victory while simultaneously claiming more winning remained necessary, signaling rhetorical retreat as complexity became apparent. Unlike the Venezuela model of regime decapitation, Iran's ideological and institutional resilience proved formidable. Economic consequences—soaring oil prices, falling stock markets, disrupted supply chains—prompted Trump to conclude the military adventure swiftly, suggesting a tacit deal emerged from financial pressures.

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