"The failure of this week's peace talks between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump's envoy Steve Witkoff fits into a now well-established pattern of standoffs on Ukraine during Trump's second term. But the dynamic that produced these talks may be becoming more entrenched. The US and Russian interests driving the process have not changed, while the conflict on the ground is intensifying."
"The internal logic of the interactions that have brought us to this point is familiar by now. Trump refuses to give arms to Ukraine. Instead he attempts a bilateral deal with Putin to stop the war at Ukraine's territorial expense. Russia bombs Ukraine and makes attritional battlefield progress. Ukraine and its other allies mobilise to challenge any emerging pro-Russian deal. The US rebalances its plans to take account of the objections. Talks take place. Putin says no deal."
Peace talks between Russia and US envoys have repeatedly stalled while the war in Ukraine intensifies. US and Russian strategic interests remain unchanged, producing a cycle of diplomacy that seeks a bilateral settlement and resists arming Ukraine. Russia continues attritional bombardment and territorial gains, prompting Ukraine and its allies to mobilise against any pro-Russian deal. US policymakers adjust plans in reaction to allied objections, triggering further talks that often fail. The process will either be abandoned as ineffective or altered to produce an outcome more likely to stop the fighting, with political costs influencing choices.
Read at www.theguardian.com
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