China doesn't need a trade deal to win. Here's what CEOs are missing | Fortune

"China is not negotiating from uncertainty. It is negotiating from structural advantage. Both sides called the talks "constructive." Both described the atmosphere as "remarkably stable." Both agreed to continue consultations. That is diplomatic language for something more fundamental: no resolution is possible because each side wants what the other cannot give."

"China's position does not depend on what happens in any meeting room. Its exports are still expected to grow 10% to 15% in 2026. Across most industrial categories, there is still no alternative supply chain that can match China on both quality and price. Business leaders I speak with daily are increasing imports from China-not because they want to, but because they have no viable substitute."

"That reality is the foundation of Xi Jinping's confidence. China ran a $1.2 trillion trade surplus in 2025 and is on track to generate at least $1.25 trillion in export earnings this year. No negotiation will quickly change that. Xi is not bargaining from weakness; he is bargaining from a position built over three decades."

China's negotiating position in Paris trade talks stems from deep structural advantages rather than diplomatic flexibility. With a $1.2 trillion trade surplus in 2025 and expected 10-15% export growth in 2026, China maintains dominance across industrial categories where no viable alternative supply chains exist. Business leaders continue increasing Chinese imports due to lack of substitutes, not preference. Both sides described talks as constructive and stable, diplomatic language masking fundamental incompatibility: each side wants what the other cannot provide. China's concessions—increased agricultural imports, soybean purchases, energy discussions—are tactical gestures preserving core interests while creating appearance of reciprocity. Xi Jinping's confidence reflects three decades of economic positioning, not negotiation outcomes.

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