"China doesn't control most of the world's rare earth mines, but it does dominate the refining and processing systems where 90% of global capacity sits. These materials- about 17 obscured elements like neodymium and dysprosium-are essential inputs in electric vehicles, magnets, wind turbines, high-end semiconductors, F-35 fighter jets, and guided missiles. Ross says U.S. vulnerability has been building quietly for years, but only became visible after China introduced new export licensing requirements that he calls a "disguised rationing system.""
""They have imposed a registration process, which is just a way to mask the controls," Ross said. "Who knows how deliberately slow they'll make the approvals." In other words, Ross thinks China can now ration supply to U.S. manufacturers, and do it without formally violating trade agreements. "It's a very effective weapon ... and it attacks our high-tech things and our national defense needs.""
China has concentrated control over rare-earth refining and processing, holding about 90% of global capacity even without most mine ownership. Rare earths comprise roughly 17 elements, including neodymium and dysprosium, and are essential for electric vehicles, magnets, wind turbines, advanced semiconductors, F-35 jets, and guided missiles. New export licensing and registration processes function as disguised rationing that can slow approvals and mask controls while avoiding formal trade violations. Existing U.S. stockpiles are insufficient; supply strain could hit industry within six to 12 months, creating real risks of factory shutdowns and defense vulnerabilities.
Read at Fortune
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