"JPMorgan predicted that commercial oil inventories in the developed world could "approach operational stress levels" by early June. Saudi Aramco said global inventories of gasoline and jet fuel could reach "critically low levels" ahead of the summer. The International Energy Agency warned the world is drawing down oil inventories at a record pace, with 164 million barrels released by governments and industry as of May 8."
""Rapidly shrinking buffers amid continued disruptions may herald future price spikes ahead," IEA said in its lately monthly report. "But if the Strait remains effectively closed and commercial oil inventories in the OECD continue to be run down at the same pace as they were in April, oil stocks could reach critically low levels by the end of June," Hamad Hussain, climate and commodities economist at Capital Economics, said in a note on Wednesday."
"While investors have been trading on hopes that the Iran ceasefire will remain intact, there is little sign that the oil trade will return to normal soon, forcing them to reckon with the reality of worsening shortages and an imminent tipping point ahead. The U.S. and Israel launched their war on Iran two and a half months ago, and analysts expected the Strait of Hormuz to reopen by the end of May or early June."
"That's looking less likely as Iran attacks ships in the Persian Gulf while the U.S. military is still enforcing a blockade on Iranian oil. Meanwhile, the Navy's efforts to reopen the strait with warships is on hold."
The Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, and efforts to reopen it have not produced a breakthrough. Investors expecting an Iran ceasefire to hold face worsening shortages and a potential tipping point. JPMorgan projects commercial oil inventories in developed countries could approach operational stress levels by early June. Saudi Aramco warns global gasoline and jet fuel inventories could reach critically low levels ahead of summer. The International Energy Agency reports governments and industry released 164 million barrels as of May 8 and says the world is drawing down inventories at a record pace. Continued disruptions and shrinking buffers may lead to future price spikes. Iran attacks ships in the Persian Gulf while the U.S. enforces a blockade, and naval efforts to reopen the strait are on hold.
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