"And the evidence that prediction markets are rife with insider traders continues to grow. As one eagle-eyed Reddit user noticed, an anonymous day-old Polymarket account correctly guessed 17 out of around 20 bets about Sunday's Super Bowl half-time show. Statistically speaking, that's an exceedingly unlikely success rate, strongly suggesting the account had some kind of insider knowledge of what would happen during Puerto Rican superstar Bad Bunny's performance."
"The account correctly predicted that popstars Lady Gaga, Cardi B, and Ricky Martin would perform at the show. The account also correctly predicted that rappers Travis Scott and Drake, as well as singer Post Malone, would not perform. The anonymous user placed bets starting February 6, two days before the event took place. All told, they made about $17,000 in profit."
Anonymous bettors on prediction-market platforms have made large, precise profits by correctly predicting major events shortly before they occurred, including a bettor who predicted a US invasion of Venezuela and earned over $400,000. Evidence of insider activity includes a new Polymarket account that correctly guessed 17 of about 20 Super Bowl halftime show outcomes, winning roughly $17,000 after placing bets two days earlier. Prediction markets operate without clear regulation, allowing insiders to exploit privileged information while ordinary bettors lose money. Trading and advertising around betting surged during the Super Bowl, with Kalshi reporting over half a billion dollars tied to the final outcome.
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