Why the Democrats Finally Folded

"For the past 30 years, the party that has forced federal agencies to close their doors in a funding fight has never actually achieved the policy outcome it was demanding. Republicans did not successfully pressure then-President Barack Obama to defund his signature health-care law when they shut down the government in 2013. President Donald Trump, during his first term, failed to persuade Senate Democrats to authorize his border wall in 2019."

""I came to the conclusion that they were not going to cave on that red line," Senator Tim Kaine of Virginia, one of five Democrats who flipped his vote yesterday after previously backing the shutdown, told us by phone this afternoon. He acknowledged that many of his colleagues disagreed. But when he would press them on whether they believed that Republicans might come around on health care, they could not say. "There really was no evidence to suggest that they would.""

A three-decade pattern showed that parties using shutdowns rarely achieved their demanded policy outcomes. Previous shutdowns failed to force repeal of the Affordable Care Act in 2013 and authorization of a border wall in 2019. Democrats sought an extension of ACA insurance subsidies during the recent impasse. A pivotal faction of Democrats ultimately flipped their votes to begin reopening the government after determining Republicans would not agree to the subsidy extension. The decision angered many Democrats who viewed the position as politically strong. Republicans consistently refused to negotiate on the proposed subsidy extension, and final votes to end the shutdown are expected soon.

Read at The Atlantic