Wall Street strategist explains today's political rage with a poverty line that should be $140,000 and the 'Valley of Death' trapping people below it | Fortune

""But everything changed between 1963 and 2024," Green wrote. "Housing costs exploded. Healthcare became the largest household expense for many families. Employer coverage shrank while deductibles grew. Childcare became a market, and that market became ruinously expensive. College went from affordable to crippling. Transportation costs rose as cities sprawled and public transit withered under government neglect." Meanwhile, a two-income household is now needed to maintain what one income once provided, but that incurs childcare costs and the need for two cars."

"As a result, the poverty line's narrow focus on food leaves out how much other expenses are now sucking up incomes and lowballing the minimum amount Americans need to get by. Green estimated that food comprises just 5%-7% of household spending, but put housing at 35%-45%, childcare at 20%-40%, and healthcare at 15%-25%. "If the crisis threshold-the floor below which families cannot function-is honestly updated to current spending patterns, it lands at $140,000," he added."

The U.S. affordability crisis influenced recent elections, including the presidency and the election of a democratic socialist mayor in New York City. Inflation has cooled, incomes have risen modestly, and consumer spending remains resilient, yet many households continue to struggle with rising living costs. The federal poverty line, rooted in a 1960s food-based formula, fails to account for modern expenses such as housing, healthcare, childcare, education, and transportation. Current spending shares show food as a small portion while housing, childcare, and healthcare consume far larger shares, implying a much higher crisis threshold around $140,000.

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