"The calculation incorporates the bank's job-growth tracker, which slowed to 50,000 new jobs in October from 85,000 in September, and the government's deferred-resignation program, which will likely cut payrolls by about 100,000 positions. Our job openings and labor market tightness trackers continued to decline, and our newly constructed layoff tracker also revealed an increase in layoffs over the past few months, the bank added, marking the largest employment decline since late 2020."
"Yeah, I haven't been briefed on that yet because there's been quite a lot of disruption because of this terrible shutdown. And so, for example, I've been told that some of the surveys were never actually completed, so we'll perhaps never even know what happened in that month. And so we're going to be staring a little bit into cloudy, cloudy weather for a while until we get the data agencies back up, replied Hassett."
Goldman Sachs estimated U.S. nonfarm payrolls likely fell by about 50,000 jobs in October, driven by a slowdown in its job-growth tracker from 85,000 to 50,000. The bank estimated the government's deferred-resignation program could reduce payrolls by roughly 100,000 positions. Job openings and labor market tightness measures declined while a new layoff tracker showed rising layoffs, producing the largest employment decline since late 2020. Government data through early September showed 22,000 jobs added in August and a June revision to a 13,000-job loss. National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett said the shutdown disrupted surveys and may prevent completion, delaying accurate October data until agencies resume operations.
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