Trump's peace plan' was a pro-Kremlin abomination whose failure is a glimmer of hope for Ukraine | Rajan Menon

"Trump keeps signalling that he is willing to compromise, but his original plan put Ukraine in a very tough starting position, handing Vladimir Putin concessions that Russia has so far failed to gain on the battlefield. It is true Russia has made recent advances especially around Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad in Donetsk province, and in parts of Zaporizhzhia. And Ukraine lacks the troops and firepower to retake all the territory lost since 2022, let alone Crimea."

"But the Ukrainian army isn't about to unravel, and neither is Putin close to fulfilling his original objective: conquering the four Ukrainian provinces of Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. Russia fully controls only Luhansk. This war could drag on until the summer. By then, Putin's forces will have fought Ukraine for as long as Stalin's fought Nazi Germany. Ukraine's shortages are well known: too few soldiers to hold an 800-mile contact line and inadequate air defences after Trump severely cut direct US military assistance."

"What is remarkable, given Ukraine's disadvantages, is the scale of Russia's losses: more than 1 million casualties according to the UK Ministry of Defence, nearly 150,000 confirmed dead, and more than 23,000 pieces of equipment destroyed or damaged. Ukrainian deep strikes on Russian refineries at least 17 by mid-November have caused fuel shortages, long lines at petrol stations, panic buying, higher prices, rationing and a cut in refining capacity by up to a fifth."

Talks in Switzerland aim to end the war in Ukraine, with negotiators reworking a 28-point US peace plan into one more favorable to Ukraine. The original plan placed Ukraine in a difficult position by offering concessions Russia has not achieved on the battlefield. Russia has made advances around Pokrovsk, Myrnohrad and parts of Zaporizhzhia, and Ukraine lacks the troops and firepower to retake all territory lost since 2022. The Ukrainian army remains intact and Russia fully controls only Luhansk; Putin is not close to conquering Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. Russia has suffered heavy losses and Ukrainian strikes on refineries have caused fuel shortages and reduced refining capacity.

Read at www.theguardian.com