"The trigger point for the long shutdown that began in October, the deadline for extending Obamacare premium subsidies, has come and gone, and while all Democrats and some Republicans still want to resurrect them, the issue isn't time sensitive in quite the way it was. Plus, Congress is actually making progress on regular spending bills covering agencies till the end of the year, which could make the scope of government operations vulnerable to a shutdown significantly smaller."
"congressional Democrats are livid over a litany of issues, including President Donald Trump's unilateral invasion of Venezuela, stalled action on health care and, most recently, an immigration agent fatally shooting a woman in Minneapolis. But they are split on how to fight back. With another critical government funding deadline on Jan. 30, Democratic leaders don't appear willing to leverage their votes for spending bills in exchange for action. In fact, they appear to be openly forecasting there won't be a shutdown at all."
Conflict in Congress remains high as the January 30 stopgap funding deadline approaches, but the odds of a shutdown have declined. The October shutdown trigger—the deadline to extend Obamacare premium subsidies—has passed, reducing time pressure despite continued support from Democrats and some Republicans for reinstating subsidies. Congress is making progress on regular spending bills for agencies through the end of the year, which could narrow the scope of any shutdown. Midterm elections within a year create a political incentive for Democrats to check the president at the ballot box rather than by halting government services. Democratic leaders publicly expect no shutdown.
Read at Intelligencer
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