The two wildcards shaping the tail end of the Virginia race for governor

"ARLINGTON, Va. Only two states, Virginia and New Jersey, hold their elections for governor the year after the presidential election and the year before the midterms. The races are often seen as a test of voter sentiment, but just weeks out from the election, two late-emerging issues in Virginia may be reshaping that state's contest. Abigail Spanberger, a former member of Congress, is the Democratic candidate, and Winsome Earle-Sears, the Republican candidate, is the commonwealth's current lieutenant governor."

"Democrats are hopeful that history may be on their side. The party in power in the White House typically loses the race for governor in Virginia. That trend, plus frustrations over the government shutdown and the Trump administration's effect on the state's large federal workforce, could propel them over the finish line. Meanwhile, Republicans may have received a boost from reporting on violent text messages sent in 2022 by the Democratic candidate for attorney general, first published in the National Review.."

"Democrats focus on the economy and the federal workforce In the one-and-only candidate debate in the race, Spanberger highlighted the rising cost of living in Virginia and voter anxiety over the Trump administration's cuts to the federal workforce, themes her campaign has hammered for months. That's for good reason: federal cuts are having a significant impact in Virginia, home to about 320,000 federal workers, and many others who work on federal contracts."

Virginia's upcoming governor's race features Democrat Abigail Spanberger and Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears. Historical trends favor the party out of the White House, and Democrats emphasize economic strain from rising costs and cuts to the federal workforce. Virginia employs roughly 320,000 federal workers and about 11,000 Virginia-based federal jobs have been lost since July, intensifying concerns from furloughs and unpaid work during the government shutdown. Republicans cite revelations about violent text messages sent in 2022 by the Democratic attorney general candidate as a late boost. The gubernatorial outcome could shape alignment with or opposition to Trump-era policies and influence down-ballot contests.

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