The Texas Primaries Were Good for James Talarico, and Bad for John Cornyn

"The axiom of the Trump-era G.O.P. is that the Trumpier candidate is the favorite, and so, for much of the year, the presumption was that it was Paxton's race to lose. But, as primary day approached, Trump's grip on politics appeared weaker than usual and, for a leading U.S. Senate candidate, Paxton was unusually scandal-plagued."

"He had endured a high-profile divorce, the result of an ongoing affair; a disbarment action, which was dismissed; and a public whistle-blower allegation by seven of his aides who accused him of bribery, among other transgressions, four of whom the state paid a $6.6-million settlement after Paxton fired them."

"Cornyn, still the establishment conservative, raised roughly sixty-nine million dollars; Paxton just four million. In the final stages of the primary, the incumbent, still trailing in the polls, released a spot for the ages, which opened: 'It's voting time, so let's cut through the bullshit. Crooked Ken Paxton cheated on his wife.'"

Texas's twin 2026 Senate primaries opened the midterm cycle with starkly different dynamics for each party. The Republican primary featured an unusual underdog incumbent: Senator John Cornyn, a four-term McConnell ally who backed Trump's agenda but refused to validate stolen election claims. His opponent, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, aggressively pursued Trump-aligned positions, including suing blue states over 2020 results. Paxton initially appeared favored under Trump-era GOP logic, but his candidacy was undermined by multiple scandals: a high-profile divorce involving an affair, dismissed disbarment charges, and whistleblower allegations of bribery resulting in a $6.6 million settlement. Cornyn's superior fundraising and aggressive advertising ultimately prevailed, suggesting Trump's political grip may be weakening.

Read at The New Yorker