"The DOJ's decision to drop its Fed renovation investigation removes a key obstacle to Kevin Warsh becoming chair. A more dovish tone could help, but FOMC votes, labor data and elevated oil prices will shape the 10-year yield and mortgage spreads."
"Since 2015, whenever I do my mortgage rate forecasts, I never target rates first. I target where I believe the 10-year Treasury yield can range for a calendar year, and how mortgage rates can range in that forecast."
"The final piece of the puzzle is mortgage spreads, the difference between the 10-year yield and the 30-year mortgage rate. The spreads were as high as 3.11% in 2023 and gradually got to a low of 1.82% in 2026."
The DOJ has concluded its investigation into alleged cost overruns on the Federal Reserve's renovations, facilitating Kevin Warsh's potential appointment as chair. This change may influence mortgage rates, which President Trump desires to lower. Forecasts suggest mortgage rates could range from 5.75% to 6.75%, while the 10-year Treasury yield may fluctuate between 3.80% and 4.60%. The relationship between Fed policy and market trends is significant, particularly regarding mortgage spreads, which have narrowed from 3.11% in 2023 to 1.82% in 2026.
Read at www.housingwire.com
Unable to calculate read time
Collection
[
|
...
]